Day by Day

Saturday, April 07, 2007

President Ahmadinejad the Proctologist

We were probed. As surely as a visit to a proctologist, the West was just probed by Iran.

What do I mean?

Iran, under President Ahmadinejad, is trying to achieve an ascendancy. As is classic and time-worn, when trouble brews domestically, focus the populace elsewhere.

President Ahmadinejad would like to achieve his goals of making Iran a super-state in the Middle East. Subduing, and quite possibly annexing, Iraq next door (not the same as our version of quelling the insurgency - his version of subduing means that the West is out of there). Giving Israel ample reason to wonder if there will be a tomorrow for the Jews. Restoring pride and power to Persia.

The West stands in his way. Much like Germany saw the the need to conquer Europe to consolidate control and to facilitate goals of a super-race, and Japan needed the United States pacified to free its access to natural resources for its empire, Iran (Persia) needs the West to back away.

Iran (Persia) could easily close off trade through the Straits of Hormuz. But, they know (or now, may only suspect) that quick military reaction would result. Thirty years of Western embargoes have affected their navy and air force, but luckily, they can still shop at Russia's flea markets, so they are not toothless.

What's important before waging war is having some idea of how your enemy may react. Will they fight back Will they stand by? Will they capitulate? How much fire is in their belly?

So, you probe. You test your enemy. See how they respond to low provocation.

And that's what Iran is doing. Between putting forces in Iraq - where they can formulate dissension AND closely observe Western forces - and the snatch and grab of British sailors and Marines... Iran is studying us.

And they're not disappointed. We have emboldened them with the latest reaction by the Brits. The culture in that part of the world respects strength. And allowing your uniformed personnel to be taken with, at most, stern talk, and quite likely prisoner trades and other rewards for your behavior, doesn't strike fear in the hearts for future operations.

"They" are coming.

Iran has not suddenly rolled over and realized thirty years of chanting "Death to the Great Satan" was a bad idea... they're just becoming more motivated and mobilized.

They are rejoicing in the weakness that is enveloping the West, as the United States' forces are stretched amazingly thin and hampered by strict rules of engagement and lackluster support at home, and its allies are few and far between. They have made sufficient economic inroads with a majority of the big players (Russia, China, Germany, France) to make them think twice about risking their money for a war or sanctions.

So, let's be prepared, and realize what's coming. President Ahmadinejad did not get a wild hare in his head just before Easter for nothing; you do NOT rise to his level in a country (any country, ours included) by being a complete idiot (sorry, liberals).

We were probed. We will be probed again. How will we react next time?

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